The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States will have far-reaching economic and political implications inside the USA and around the world. While it is too early to predict the final outcomes, Grant Thornton is offering expert insight into the global expectations and implications of the vote.

The analysis of what a Trump Presidency may mean takes into account a new approach to international trade agreements, and what difference Republican control of the Senate and House of Representatives as well as the White House could make.

Dennis McGurgan, Managing Director of Grant Thornton in the Isle of Man, said: ‘The election of a new US President always signals the introduction of new policies which can have implications worldwide, both political and economic, and these need to be carefully considered and understood. This is perhaps even more so the case with the election of Donald Trump, as the detail of his policies was not clear during the campaign and some of the measures he has promised could have serious implications.

‘Nick Jeffrey, who leads Grant Thornton’s global public policy team, has applied his experience and expertise to analyse what can be expected and we are pleased to be able to share that insight with our clients and businesses in the Isle of Man. The US is the world’s biggest economy and any shift in policy can have an effect across all nations, including the Island and all the jurisdictions we do business with. In order to plan for the potential outcomes it is important to understand what President-elect Trump might do, and our analysis gives that opportunity.’

Among his observations, Mr Jeffrey says that while Mr Trump has suggested international trade agreements could be abandoned or renegotiated, it remains to be seen what will actually be implemented. That uncertainty has triggered immediate trade volatility and a weakening of the dollar – linked to reduced inward and outward investment – which could actually boost US exports in the short term.

Longer term, a move towards protectionist trade policies would impact on those who export to the US and spark retaliatory action against US exports, although it could open the way for governments to negotiate new trading relationships which may benefit some countries.

He notes that while the Republican Party controls Congress, Mr Trump has not enjoyed full support from his party which means some of his policies could be held up or diluted, leading to legislative deadlock which may bring further market volatility and harm investor confidence.

Market volatility is likely to be further fueled by uncertainty over Mr Trump’s precise policies on immigration, foreign affairs and defence, as well as how he aims to achieve his intention of cutting taxes while maintaining or increasing government spending.

Mr McGurgan said: ‘The initial assessment is of short-term volatility, which we are witnessing, with the long-term implications hard to assess until detailed policies are issued by Mr Trump and the stance of the Republican-controlled Congress is known.

‘Grant Thornton will continue to monitor developments and has created an online resource to help people understand the implications of the Trump Presidency at every stage. The website examines the tax outlook, key influences, the view from abroad, the transition of power and the role of Congress, and will be regularly updated with more expert insight.’

For more detail of Nick Jeffrey’s analysis contact Grant Thornton on 639494, and to access Grant Thornton’s dedicated online US election resource visit www.grantthornton.com/issues.

Photo - Dennis McGurgan, Grant Thornton Isle of Man.